Yes, we could say so! On 18 February we had special guest speaker who attracted a lot of our members and guests. As the Sergeant-at-Arms I was a bit too busy so I could not fully concentrate on his presentation…

Speaker’s Committee Chair Rtn Joerg introduced the speaker Mr. Alfred Schipke.
Alfred Schipke is the IMF Senior Resident Representative for China. Previously, he was a division chief in the Asia and Pacific Department, where he coordinated the work on fast growing low income countries in South-East Asia (Frontier Economies) and led missions to Vietnam. He was a division chief in the IMF’s Western Hemisphere Department in charge of the Latin Caribbean and Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) divisions. Among others, he negotiated a high access Stand-by Arrangement, which included a debt restructuring and a debt-equity swap for one of the countries in the ECCU, as well as an $800 million precautionary Stand-By Arrangement for El Salvador. Also, he was the Regional Resident Representative for Central America, Panama, and the Dominican Republic and worked in the IMF European Department. He teaches international trade and finance at Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government and has authored and edited a number of books and articles, including a recently published handbook on the ECCU. His research has focused on economic integration and the linkages between macroeconomics and finance.

In his presentation, filled with charts and data, he gave his view on what the future could hold for China.
In the short-term, China’s economic growth remains relatively strong. The consumption is still strong and the supply side is holding up, although latest PMI somewhat weaker. Trade recovering as global demand picks up, but widening trade surplus adds to intervention pressures. Impact of tapering limited is a short-term risk.
In the medium-term, China is facing a great deal of challenges. Investment supports growth via off budget fiscal spending. Several vulnerable aspects occurred, such as local government debt, real estate as growth engine, large stock of social financing (increase in shadow banking can pose risks), net domestic credit is relatively high. Mr. Schipke also briefly analyzed different dimensions of RMB.
Rtn Christian B. thanked Mr. Schipke for the great presentation.