No more international flights

Lots to report, more COVID-19 (bad) news. More tomorrow.
Flights to Beijing Diverted to 12 Other Cities Over Imported Coronavirus Concerns – Caixin
The move comes after all arrivals to Beijing, one of China’s top international gateways, were initially required to undergo 14 day quarantines at designated local hotels. As those hotels filled up, the city rolled out a new policy last week requiring many inbound flights to stop first at a handful of other cities to relieve the pressure.
Under the latest policy, China’s aviation authority has designated the 12 airports in Tianjin, Hohhot, Taiyuan, Shanghai’s Pudong New Area, Shijiazhuang, Jinan, Qingdao, Nanjing, Shenyang, Dalian, Zhengzhou and Xi’an to act as first port of entry for all inbound flights destined for Beijing.

See here one hotel where fellow Rotarians are currently in quarantine. One unlucky lady landed in a room without WIFI and it cannot repaired because nobody can enter the room… Otherwise nice prison.

Lijingwan International Hotel Beijing
No. 28 North Shilipu, Dongsihuan Road, Beijing, China

Chinese economy

See the latest from China Economic Review, basically what I already wrote a few days ago.

Foreign orders at Chinese exporters plunge as pandemic widens.
As Chinese manufacturers return to work following a nearly two-month shutdown during the COVID-19 epidemic, many are finding they have no work because foreign clients cancelled or slashed orders as the pandemic spread globally, reported Caixin.
China’s Ministry of Commerce Monday warned that the foreign trade sector may face a decline in orders even though two-thirds of key manufacturers outside of Hubei, where the outbreak hit the hardest, have resumed more than 70% of operations. Several exporters told Caixin that their business is worse than after the financial crisis of 2008. “The whole world feels paralyzed,” said one.

In Yiwu, the world’s largest small-commodity wholesale market in East China’s Zhejiang Province, a jewelry exporter said 5% of its orders have been canceled since last week, and those that haven’t done so are considering scaling back or delaying shipments. “Last week, an Italian client suddenly told us they don’t need the goods anymore,” the jewelry exporter said. “Some clients are asking for a two-month delay in shipment.”
March is usually the business peak for jewelry exporters. Orders for the spring and summer collections are usually fulfilled at this time, and clients begin to place orders for their fall and winter collections. But this year the company hasn’t received any new orders and expects a 30%-40% decline in total orders for the year, the Yiwu jewelry exporter said.

The Tip of the Iceberg

Virologist David Ho (BS ’74) Speaks About COVID-19
20 March 2020
https://www.caltech.edu/about/news/tip-iceberg-virologist-david-ho-bs-74-speaks-about-covid-19
You are warned…

Extract:
In New York, we know that we are in the exponential growth phase of the epidemic.
Looking back at what has transpired throughout the world, we saw the first wave hit China; the second wave hit South Korea, Italy, and Iran; and then, trailed by only about a week or so, France, Germany, Spain, and the U.S. We all know that China went through a period of great devastation. It has over 80,000 cases. Italy is rapidly catching up, with over 31,000 cases. We suspect that in the U.S. this will rapidly sweep from the coastal regions and it will hit middle America. It is already there, but we will see exponential growth very, very soon. Then of course we are all worried about what would happen when this epidemic strikes places like Africa and India where the health care system is less developed.

Silent carriers

A third of coronavirus cases may be ‘silent carriers’, classified Chinese data suggests
More than 43,000 people in China had tested positive without immediate symptoms by the end of February and were quarantined. It is still unclear what role asymptomatic transmission is playing in the global pandemic.
SCMP 22 March 2020
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3076323/third-coronavirus-cases-may-be-silent-carriers-classified

The number of “silent carriers” – people who are infected by the new coronavirus but show delayed or no symptoms – could be as high as one-third of those who test positive, according to classified Chinese government data seen by the South China Morning Post.
That could further complicate the strategies being used by countries to contain the virus, which has infected more than 300,000 people and killed more than 14,000 globally.
More than 43,000 people in China had tested positive for COVID-19 by the end of February but had no immediate symptoms, a condition typically known as asymptomatic, according to the data. They were placed in quarantine and monitored but were not included in the official tally of confirmed cases, which stood at about 80,000 at the time.
Scientists have been unable to agree on what role asymptomatic transmission plays in spreading the disease. A patient usually develops symptoms in five days, though the incubation period can be as long as three weeks in some rare cases.

The approach taken by China and South Korea of testing anyone who has had close contact with a patient — regardless of whether the person has symptoms — may explain why the two Asian countries seem to have checked the spread of the virus. Hong Kong is extending testing to airport arrivals in the city, even if travellers have no symptoms. Meanwhile in most European countries and the US, where only those with symptoms are tested, the number of infections continues to rapidly rise.

Coronavirus could linger in Europe for two years, Chinese expert says

SCMP 22 March 2020
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3076339/coronavirus-could-linger-europe-two-years-chinese-expert-says

Edited extract:
‘It would be perfectly normal if the virus comes and goes’ with the seasons, Zhang Wenhong, head of Shanghai’s COVID-19 clinical expert team, tells Chinese expats, students in Germany.
‘If only the whole world could stop moving for four weeks, the pandemic could be stopped,’ he says.

A Chinese expert on infectious diseases said Europe must give up on the idea that the COVID-19 pandemic will be over soon and instead prepare for a battle that could last for up to two years.
The warning – from Zhang Wenhong, head of Shanghai’s COVID-19 clinical expert team – came as European countries, including Italy, Spain and Germany, are experiencing sharp rises in the number of infections and deaths, while China is working to keep out imported cases after reporting only one new domestic case in the past four days.

 “It would be perfectly normal if the virus comes and goes, and lasts for one or two years,” Zhang said during a videoconference organised by the Chinese consulate in the German city of Düsseldorf.
“I can tell you now, forget the idea that the pandemic will come to an end in Europe in the near future.”
Zhang, who is also director of the infectious diseases department at Huashan Hospital of Fudan University in Shanghai, earlier predicted that the epidemic within China would peak between April and June, before falling back in summer, returning sporadically through autumn and winter, and peaking again, though probably on a smaller scale, next spring.
 “To resolve this outbreak in a short period of time, measures have to be extremely radical,” Zhang said, adding that China was able to impose widespread city lockdowns thanks to the fact that the initial outbreak coincided with the Lunar New Year holiday, when schools and businesses were set to close anyway.
“If only the whole world could stop moving for four weeks, the pandemic could be stopped,” he said.

The case of South Korea

As reported in NYT on 24 March:
How South Korea flattened the curve:
South Korea reported its lowest number of cases since last month on Sunday — a remarkable turnaround from the several thousand cases that exploded there in late February and early March.
Its strategy was not the full lockdown that China employed, or even the widespread restrictions that the U.S. and Europe have implemented. Instead, it focused on swift, widespread testing and contact tracing, our Interpreter columnist writes.
In the week after its first reported case, South Korea moved rapidly, eventually opening 600 testing centers and keeping health workers safe by minimizing contact. Once someone tested positive, officials meticulously traced their movements using security camera footage, credit card records, even GPS data from their cars and cellphones.
Reminder: South Korean officials caution that their successes are tentative. A risk of resurgence remains, particularly as epidemics continue raging beyond the country’s borders.

Other good examples (source: AXIOS)

But while small towns can spark big outbreaks, they can also provide clues for how to fight them.
The town of Vò, home to Italy’s first death from COVID-19, tested all 3,000 of its inhabitants, quarantining those infected even before they showed symptoms. 89 tested positive, and the disease was defeated there within two weeks, per the Guardian.
Wakayama, Japan, had similar success. Authorities there traced the contacts of two doctors who had the virus (470 people), tested them (10 were positive) and ended the outbreak there, per the Washington Post.

AXIOS: not encouraging news

Yes of course many will dismiss it all but people need to wake up to reality. Good luck to those who ignore the pandemic. And continue not wearing masks when you need. Oh yes because the governments were totally clueless and did not react in time to the shortage (except increasing more red tape). See here part of their newsletter (edited).

Tens of thousands of Americans die, we have double-digit unemployment for months, countless businesses die, retirements are wiped out, and the nation is saddled with once unimaginable debt.
That, folks, is the best case scenario we’re facing.
That’s if we’re lucky — and doesn’t even mention the lost graduations, honeymoons, weddings, and other important missed milestones.

A survey of epidemiology experts, posted by a scholar at UMass Amherst and reported by FiveThirtyEight, predicted that the number of cases reported by the end of this month would most likely fall somewhere between 10,500 and 81,500.
We’re already right around 20,000 cases, so the lower end of those estimates is out the window.
The same survey anticipates about 200,000 deaths in the U.S. this year, but experts have established a range that stretches from as few as 19,000 deaths to as many as 1.2 million.

A true best-case scenario would look a lot like the response in places like Singapore and South Korea, which were able to quickly “flatten the curve” and bring the number of new cases under control.
But the U.S. simply has not been doing the things that worked in those countries, so whatever our best-case scenario may be, it’s not that good.

Containing the virus requires us to know where and how bad outbreaks are. The only way to get that information is through widespread testing, which the U.S. can’t do right now. The U.S. has been playing catch-up on testing this whole time, largely because of early decisions from the Trump administration that severely limited the number of available tests.

The coronavirus seems increasingly likely to plunge the world into economic times worse than anything we’ve seen in decades. In the U.S., layoffs have already started. As many as 2 million people could file for unemployment aid next week— and we’re barely two weeks into a widespread societal shutdown that could stretch on for weeks or months.

Meanwhile…

China 10 days for (big) hospital. France 5 days for a tent.

Humor, maybe, heavy dose of sarcasm, sure

Taking it easy.
A voice told me Horus and Thoth are admonishing to repent as they have unleashed the virus and locust plagues.

Oh yes, churches. mosques and all are closed. As all non-essential services are banned.

Meanwhile spring has arrived on my Beijing balcony. Have a nice Sunday. I might have a steak tartare this evening in my favorite restaurant. I’ll ask Horus first.

World recession is at the door

The Coronavirus pandemic will cause a recession deeper and more severe than the Great Recession. The question is how fast we bounce back from it.

There is no room for optimism. My dark predictions that nobody listened to about a month ago, today look overly optimistic. This year 2020 is wasted and as a vaccine is not in reach, we could see a new wave of infections in autumn. The key pharmaceutical companies promise a vaccine. In 12 to 18 months from now. We cannot yet say there is a real medication coming soon to treat the virus.

With nearly all borders closed and travel, local as well as international, tourism, food and beverage, hospitality, seminars, trade fairs, sports, entertainment, – name it – all dead, huge sections of the economy are paralyzed and so many people are facing financial hardship. I call it the deadly chain reaction. Consumer demand will implode. Sections of industry stopping production because parts are unavailable, people can’t work nor meet. The governments can’t distribute money to solve this simply because they will lack resources and will indebt for decades their country.

China has prescribed some good instructions but unfortunately many fail to obey: don’t fire workers who can’t work, companies must pay a minimum wage, reduce the rentals for shops and other, grace periods to repay loans, grace periods and reduction of some taxes, etc. Sadly bureaucracy has hampered the implementation and many Chinese companies fire staff and don’t pay any salary, unlike most foreign-owned businesses. Still their ideas are better than some of the American ideas of mostly reducing taxes and giving handouts.

Many point at the increase in online orders and e-commerce, and food delivery. They overlook that restaurants offer heavy discounts on those orders and hardly make any money on it, if any. It does not compare to their normal income.

Restrictions in France and Belgium are starting to be much more severe and not always justified than they were/are in Beijing. Why one cannot walk on the beach? Why one cannot walk around? Recommended for health reasons. But oh yes no masks. Total lack of logic. In Beijing nobody ever stopped me on my bicycle. Of course using mask, face protection and gloves. The anti-mask attitude in the West is as stupid as the mask paranoia in China.
I expect infection numbers to go sky-high in USA, Africa, and South America unless countries take stringent measures. Most countries including USA are ill-prepared. They will suffer the consequences.

As I mentioned in my interview on INDUS News  on 19 March, economic prospects for China are not great. Yes, the country is managing the outbreak but most overlook the fundamentals.

1. Some hundreds of millions of workers can’t restart working and are running out of money to survive as they cannot reach their place of work or their business is not allowed to resume normal operations. Yesterday driving on some major avenues in Beijing I saw 80% of the small shops were shuttered. Restaurants, bars, KTV, entertainment, sports and cultural events: closed or cancelled. So many people lose income. They will not be buying stuff and will be unable to repay debt.

CER also reports the same:
Almost half of China’s listed consumer companies don’t have enough cash to survive another six months, underscoring the urgent task Beijing has to re-start its economy and get shoppers spending again, reported Bloomberg. Restaurants are in the worst shape as the coronavirus outbreak has kept consumers at home, with about 60% unable to cover labor and rental costs, according to data compiled by Bloomberg and company reports covering 50 listed firms. Among jewelry and apparel companies, almost half don’t have the cash to last the six months unless demand rebounds sharply, the data show.
While some retailers have reopened more of their stores in low-risk areas, demand looks unlikely to rebound quickly as consumers remain hesitant to leave their houses after weeks of government warnings about the dangers of mingling with others.
Many of China’s small and medium businesses are already collapsing as they run out of cash, but the vulnerability of the publicly listed consumer companies points to greater economic danger, as some of these employ thousands of workers across the country. Store closures and layoffs are expected, said analysts.

2. The USA-China trade war had damaged Chinese exports and industry. When the situation was starting to improve, the virus hit. Exports were blocked in ports, manufacturing stopped. Now that Chinese industry restarts, its export markets are devastated and orders will dwindle.

3. The supply chain of components and parts is in chaos. Industries in the West start feeling it and stop production. Export from China of key ingredients for medicine and related is disrupted and the West, in urgent need of more medicine, starts feeling the disruption.

As long as travel cannot restart, tourism and business events resume, the economy will be in recession.
As many say, this is the worst to happen since WWII. How bad the recession will be, nobody can predict. But it will be Armageddon.

Tokyo Olympics? Impossible. Even if Japan is virus-free, athletes and spectators from all over the world will unleash a new wave of infections as many countries are still waiting to be massively hit.

School closures do not receive due attention. Many parents cannot abandon their work. Many poorer families do not have access to equipment and suitable Internet for online classes. Children should not stay with grandparents. Who will take care? The lockdowns also are often a strain on families, not used to face each other every day.

It will be interesting to watch the impact on the foreign community in China. Xenophobia and racism against foreigners, unequal treatment, difficulties to navigate the mobile health codes and the many restrictions result in a dwindling community. Many foreigners don’t feel welcome anymore and decide to return to their home country. China already has the world’s lowest percentage of foreigners and it will get worse. What will be the impact on the industry and business in China?
The discrimination against foreign establishments (restaurants and alike) is getting worse and many throw in the towel. A loss for China, not sure they realize and understand.
China always attacks the anti-Chinese bias in Western countries but NEVER addresses xenophobic attitudes and blatant racism in China. I mentioned that in earlier posts.

Medical supplies

“Chinese testing kit exports soar as COVID-19 spreads”
17 March 2020 China Daily
Chinese firms are ramping up efforts to export and donate novel coronavirus testing kits to meet increasing overseas demand, amid the surge of COVID-19 cases outside China.
Among the more than 10 companies China has approved for the launch of COVID-19 detection products, about half have received CE (French for European Conformity) marking for product sales within countries and regions recognizing the designation.
http://global.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202003/17/WS5e701247a31012821727f8c0.html

The mess with masks and other material also continues in Europe. Governments have been in chaos and mismanaged to deal with supplies. People sending masks and other from China to countries like Belgium complain about crazy red tape. Embassies and other government entities are most inefficient and inactive.
Of course the shortage is also caused worldwide because weeks ago Chinese bought everything and shipped it to China. Why did the EU not react to this? Incompetence.

Trump, master of lies and fake news

The SCMP has looked closely at what Trump has been declaring. No, this is not the voice of the Democratic Party. For those who have been following the news, nothing new. Except for many blind Americans.

“Coronavirus: misinformation and false claims in Donald Trump’s responses to pandemic. A week in which the US president’s attitude shifted publicly about the coronavirus still contained a disregard for detail and a series of dubious statements. FDA approval of a coronavirus treatment and Asian-Americans’ support of the term ‘Chinese virus’ were just two topics where Trump’s statements were challenged.”
SCMP 21 March 2020
I recommend to read the full article.
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3076248/coronavirus-among-trumps-responses-pandemic-misinformation-and

Compare Trump’s lies and rambling with the NYC governor Andrew Cuomo. I wish he could replace Trump. He gives a clear and convincing message.

Obviously he also complains about the shortages of equipment and everything related. A different reality than the one from Trump.

Humor helps

Some good ones:

Loved the Brazilian one, “sweet memories of the time when Corona was just a shower of happiness in a world of hot water”. I indeed remember that electric shower head, popular and pretty efficient. And the new outfit for chef Renaat?