The quest for a Covid-19 cure

Posted on by Gilbert Van Kerckhove

Worldwide efforts

The quest for a Covid-19 cure and a vaccine goes on worldwide: in China, Europe (UK, Switzerland,…), USA and other. Even my University in Ghent, Belgium, is “making progress”. But it seems there is little news about the cure; most talk about a vaccine.
The outlook is difficult to evaluate. Some specialists say a vaccine will not be available before the end of this year. Others are more optimistic.

Don’t blame me! I am not a virus!

The U.S. is complaining their specialists are still waiting for the invitation from China to join the WHO team that is expected to visit China. The reasons are not clear…

Some mention progress

Inovio Pharmaceuticals (based in Pennsylvania and laboratory in San Diego) says it created a coronavirus vaccine three hours after getting access to the virus’ genetic sequence in mid-January, and now scientists are racing to get the vaccine on the market in record time.
The American company is partnering with Beijing Advaccine, a Chinese company, to work on the vaccine. Inovio also received US$9 million to work on the vaccine from the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, which is backed by billionaire Bill Gates.
Inovio took a vaccine for Zika virus from construct design to human testing in the U.S. in less than seven months. They want to beat that record.
(Source: foxbusiness.com)

Another U.S. company, Maryland-based Novavax, is aiming to make a coronavirus vaccine in as little as three months, although such vaccines can take years to develop. The company made an Ebola vaccine in 90 days.

A team headed by Prof. Peter Hotez at the Baylor College of Medicine in Houston is cooperating with researchers from Shanghai Fudan University.
A vaccine against coronavirus, developed by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, the Medical School of Shanghai Tongji University and Shanghai-based biotechnology company Stemirna Therapeutics, has already been tested on mice but trials on humans will only commence in April.
The China Association for Vaccines said that as of February 6, 17 Chinese institutions and companies were developing vaccines.
(Source: FCCC Belgium)

All restaurants in Guangzhou suspend dine-In service

In Guangzhou, all districts have suspended dine-in service as of 9 pm on February 12 (with the exception of cafeterias) as reported by Zhongguo Guangzhou Fabu, a local government-run WeChat account. Elsewhere in Guangdong, Xiangzhou district in Zhuhai, Foshan and Zhongshan have also prohibited local dine-in services.
In Shenzhen, most businesses in the Futian CBD are closed. Takeout and delivery staff must have their temperature taken before picking up the food, as reported by Southern Metropolis Daily.
The government has ordered third-party delivery services to implement health management and inspection systems for delivery staff. It is also promoting “contactless distribution” during the outbreak to prevent consumers picking up meals from delivery personnel face to face.

Toothpicks?

People in China use toothpicks and lighters to avoid pressing lift buttons amid the coronavirus outbreak. Now you know why toothpicks in the elevators…

The Chinese model is questioned

Posted on by Gilbert Van Kerckhove

Questions and uncertainties

The Covid-19 impacts many businesses, but there is more. The Chinese model is questioned. Alarm lights are flashing for the US-China phase-one trade deal. Observers look at what they call flaws in the Chinese model.

 

Beijing battles a “crisis of Chernobyl proportions’’ in coronavirus outbreak. Public fury is growing, with calls for more freedom of speech, but most observers don’t expect any dramatic changes.
We all hope for the best and support the efforts to contain the epidemic, but we also hope the Chinese government will learn some lessons.
Watch my short clip of support (need VPN):
https://www.facebook.com/lachineaupresent/videos/2634126666817695/

Oui, je reste en Chine！

La Chine vit aujourd’hui un véritable drame collectif déclenché par la propagation du coronavirus. Beaucoup de monde se sont inquiétés de la sécurité des étrangers en Chine. Pour cela, nous les avons donc contactés pour qu’ils partagent avec nous leurs expériences et leur sentiments.La porte-parole du ministère des Affaires étrangères de Chine, Mme Hua Chunying a déclaré le 6 février à la presse, que la Chine continuerait de garantir la sécurité et les soins aux étrangers en Chine ainsi que les soins aux citoyens chinois. Les mesures d’hygiène et de prévention sont traduites en quasiment toutes les langues, les étrangers en Chine peuvent rester au courant de l’évolution de l’épidémie et des règles à respecter. Mais ils ont en colère lorsqu’ils lisent ou regardent certains reportages injustes dans les médias occidentaux. La Chine a pris toute une série de mesures qui donnent maintenant de bons résultats, comme l’a confirmé l’OMS. Tout ce qu’il faut, c’est attendre car les virus obéissent à des cycles. Maintenant, tous les étrangers en Chine font confiance à la Chine. Allez la Chine! Allez Wuhan !

Posted by La Chine au Présent LCAP on Thursday, February 13, 2020

The same clip was also posted on Wechat (with no need for VPN).
Earlier they posted a text version. Some screenshots of the clip.

Uncertainty around the US-China phase-one trade deal

The deal between USA and China was signed when events in Wuhan made key terms doubtful from the start. How could China meet its additional US$200 billion purchase commitments?
And then the coronavirus epidemic made the improbable impossible.
“The coronavirus outbreak could reduce Chinese purchases of US agricultural products this year under the Phase 1 trade deal signed by the two countries”, White House national security adviser Robert O’Brien said as reported by Reuters.

The Chinese government cannot dictate consumer choices. Out of public health concerns, cinemas in China are closed. So, who will watch American films.
Chinese tourists must choose whether they travel to the U.S. or Europe. Major US airlines have stopped flying to mainland China and the US has basically barred the entry of non-American citizens. Reduced travel means also less urgency to buy Boeing jets. Tourism revenue in USA to plummet, even more than in Europe.
Some of the intended contracts need communication and meetings. Difficult now that people can’t travel anymore.
How to implement the inflated purchase promises when there is less Chinese demand and the volumes were too large to start with.

Flaws in the Chinese model

As discussed in the SCMP, the epidemic exposes fundamental flaws in China’s economic model. I have to agree with many of their views, as part of their comments.
Beijing is reluctant to fix it, as it does not want to tackle the excessive concentration of power, with information and resources now more and more in the hands of a powerful state, read, of the Party.

Beijing will continue to strengthen centralized control, and that’s is a greater threat for China’s future than the virus itself.
China can build a hospital in ten days. An overly centralized political system makes it possible for the government to place emphasis on delivering quick and impressive results but also on doing the wrong things, leading to further disaster.

The central government is increasingly reliant on state-owned enterprises and state money to maintain social stability and to deliver economic results, all while the private economy is gradually marginalized.

Many private business owners in China have noticed a change that they are not welcomed or loved in the new system.
China has suffered important capital outflows as many wealthy Chinese people, and even the urban middle class, have scrambled to move money out of the country. Private investment at home has suffered. Some of the people I know only want one thing: get their money out.

In such an increasingly centralized system, decision-making power is concentrated at the top, and information is filtered through the different levels of governments. If the top decision makers prefer stability more than anything else, the system will just automatically suppress and filter out information that can paint a different and unwelcome picture. That is the direct cause of the coronavirus outbreak, which was seriously under-reported or even covered up before January 20, see further.

Economists cited 2003 SARS as an example of how China’s economic growth can recover quickly from the coronavirus outbreak. They ignore the fact that the Chinese economy has completely changed since SARS. That time, China was integrating into the world economy and was dismantling at least in part its state sector economy.

Wuhan messed it up

source BBC: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51449675

On 30 December, Dr. Li Wenliang, an ophthalmologist working in Wuhan’s Central Hospital, posted his concerns in a private medical chat group, advising colleagues to take measures to protect themselves.
A few days later, he was summoned by the police and made to sign a confession, denouncing the messages he’d posted as “illegal behavior”.
The authorities, though, were well aware of the outbreak of illness.
The day after Dr. Li posted his message, China notified the WHO, and the day after that, the suspected source – the market – was closed down.
Doctors were already setting up quarantine rooms and anticipating extra admissions when Wuhan held its important annual political gathering, the city’s People’s Congress. In their speeches, Party leaders made no mention of the virus.
The National Health Commission continued to report that the number of infections was limited and that there was no clear evidence that the disease could spread between humans.
On 18 January the Wuhan authorities allowed a massive community banquet to take place, involving more than 40,000 families. The aim was to set a record for the most dishes served at an event.
Two days later, China finally confirmed that human-to-human transmission was indeed taking place.

Caixin reported that Beijing had its first COVID-19 patient on January 12, Guangdong’s first was January 4, Shanghai’s was January 15.
Just yesterday the government changed the way counting cases of infection and deaths, to improve the former non-transparent way of counting (as mentioned in my previous post). A step forward in transparency. Hubei province reported a spike in new confirmed cases and deaths after change in diagnostic criteria. Now doctors have broader discretion to determine which patients are infected.

The impact of Covid-19

Posted on by Gilbert Van Kerckhove

The vulnerable

The impact of Covid-19 on China’s small businesses remains unclear in terms of magnitude, but the vulnerable ones are already closing shop. I already mentioned this topic in earlier posts.
The King of Party, a KTV club in Beijing, said it would terminate employment for all 200 staff (I think one of their major karaoke is in my street gongti xi lu); Xinchao Media, an advertising agency that runs commercials in elevators, said it would cut 500 jobs on Monday; and Xibei Restaurant, a chain with more than 300 stores outlets across the country, said it would be unable to survive for three months without revenue. Those are some of the many only…

China’s private economy contributes more than 60% of the country’s economic output, and creates more than 90% of new jobs. Its health is critical to China’s overall economic performance.

Many shopping malls have reduced their business hours or closed completely, while massages, spa, gyms, karaoke bars and movie theaters have closed to help contain the spread of the virus. Blockbuster movie premieres have been postponed and many performance venues have cancelled shows.

Workers remain productive on home front

As per China Daily on 11 February.
Deserted roads, near-empty subway cars and offices without workers are normally the last scenes you would expect to see in Beijing, especially after the weeklong Spring Festival holiday.
Amid the Covid-19 outbreak, people have been encouraged to stay indoors and many companies have asked their employees to work from home to reduce the risk of being infected.

According to a report from Ding-Talk, internet giant Alibaba’s business collaboration and communication platform, some 200 million people are working from home due to the outbreak. More than 10 million companies in China are using DingTalk to contact such employees. As far as I know Morel’s Restaurant is a happy user of DingTalk to connect with the employees.

The report also said that over 200 education bureaus in more than 20 provinces, including Guangdong, Henan and Shanxi, are using Ding-Talk to launch online courses for over 12 million students from some 20,000 middle and primary schools. To support this unprecedented demand, the company has added more cloud servers to facilitate videoconferences and live group broadcasts.

The coronavirus test

Here a look at a Belgian website: you can do on online test about the coronavirus, set up by VUB (Vrije Universiteit Brussel):
www.coronavirustest.be or http://huis.vub.ac.be/corona/

You can chose between Dutch, French, English, German and Spanish.

After submitting your replies you will get an assessment.

Questions:

What is your gender? Man    Woman
What is your year of birth?
In which country do you live?
Do you have a fever (38.5 degrees or more)?           Yes  No
Do you have pain when you breathe?           Yes  No
Are you short of breath?         Yes     No
Do you have to cough?          Yes     No
Are you coughing up mucus? Yes     No
Do you have a sore throat?    Yes     No
Do you have a runny nose?   Yes     No
Do you have muscle pain?     Yes     No
Do you take medication that reduces your immunity?           Yes     No
Have you been in China during the 14 days that preceded your complaints?          Yes   No
Did you have close physical contact with someone with a proven corona infection during the 14 days preceding your symptoms?        Yes    No

Tip: runny nose and mucus are not indication of the virus.

Most recent news: while the median incubation time is said to be three days, it could be as long as 24 days and it is making detection much more difficult.

China’s health authorities have decided to no longer count as confirmed cases those patients who test positive but don’t show symptoms. Experts were skeptical, and it was another factor that made it harder to determine the true scale of the epidemic. As reported by NYT and many other media.
The death toll is also said to be seriously underreported as medical staff are not allowed to list coronavirus as a cause of death when cases had not been confirmed. Instructions even bans them from listing “pneumonia”. Instead they have to write the immediate cause of a patient’s death, such as diabetes or organ failure. Another known issue is with the difficulty in getting some patients to hospital in time. Some pass away at home because they could not reach the hospitals in time. In all those cases it’s “not the coronavirus”…

Humor is alive

As one friend said, 1 April arrived early. I was also (happily) misled with the “news”.

One Wechat post explained that according to NASA 11 February was the only day of the year when a broom can stand up because of earth’s gravity. Many Chinese friends were posting pics of their brooms standing up, I thought (as a “clever engineer”) that it was not possible.

Then I tried myself and became all excited. A friend said, the brooms would fall down after 59 minutes. I went to check regularly and the brooms remained upright.

The next morning they were still in place.

Then a clever French Rotaractor broke the news:
The truth is, you can make a broom stand upright today… and tomorrow and the day after… and the day after that. It has nothing to do with the earth’s gravitational pull on a certain day. It also has nothing to do with the vernal equinox (another day of the year when this “magic” supposedly happens).
Instead, it has everything to do with balance. The center of gravity is low on a broom, and rests directly over the bristles. Which means, if you can get the bristles positioned like a tripod, your broom will stand upright any day of the year.
Hey! It was fun!

There are also some pretty hilarious video clips going around of people singing about the virus.
This one is my favorite:

mylittleWuhanone

(click to play)

The devil has a new name

Posted on by Gilbert Van Kerckhove

RIP NCP

The WHO has given the devil has a new name, Covid-19; formerly known as NCP, 2019-nCoV or the Wuhan Virus.

At the opening of the conference, the head of the WHO, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, said that the Covid-19 epidemic is a very serious threat for the rest of the world.

Mounting fears

According to news from Yahoo, scientists say at least 500,000 people may become infected with the coronavirus in Wuhan before it peaks in the coming weeks.
Researchers at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine put together a mathematical model to determine the spread of the disease in Wuhan, and they said it was likely to peak in mid-to-late-February.
Based on their estimates, at least one out of every 20 people in Wuhan — or about 500,000 people — could be infected by the time the virus peaks.

The WHO warned that the spread of the virus through people who never visited China might be “the tip of the iceberg”.
Gabriel Leung from the University of Hongkong tried to estimate “size of the iceberg”. He estimates that 60% of the world population could be infected by Covid-19. He is said to be a world expert on corona virus and joined some 400 specialists at the WHO conference in Geneva.

Maybe that’s all a bit overblown…

Mobility in most cities worse

Beijing and Shanghai impose new controls on residents as China battles to contain coronavirus, read:
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3049891/beijing-and-shanghai-impose-new-controls-residents-china-battles

China’s two biggest cities have announced fresh restrictions on residential communities to prevent the spread of the deadly new coronavirus, joining dozens of mainland cities that have gone into partial lockdown since the epidemic began last month.
Measures unveiled by the authorities in Beijing and Shanghai on Monday include stricter controls on the movement of residents and vehicles, compulsory mask-wearing and shutting down leisure and other non-essential community services.

Beijing would step up efforts to further restrict access to residential communities and compounds and introduce a citywide registration system for entries into Beijing. Cultural and recreational facilities will be closed while couriers and other delivery services will have limited access to housing estates and compounds.

See how deliveries are piling up at the main entrance of our compound and how compounds in Tianjin and Beijing monitor access.

As some said, with restrictions in place for the past two weeks, it felt like “living in a prison”. “I hope the period of lockdown will not last long because I want my normal life back.”

Containment “must not harm business”

As reported by SCMP, there is a conflict between the central government that wants many of the economic activities to restart and the infamous Chinese bureaucrats.
As millions of people in China prepared to return to work, Beijing has said the reopening of businesses should not be hampered by “crude and oversimplified” restrictions.
Up to 160 million people were expected to be returning to their cities of employment over the coming week, according to a Chinese ministry of transport official.

Some local governments have required companies to register and gain approval before resuming production, with business owners being detained for resuming without permission. However Beijing indicated on Tuesday that this went further than the central authorities had intended.
“Such a tendency must be stopped,” a delegate of the NDRC said. “We will strictly stop restricting resumption of production in this oversimplified and crude way.”
But local bureaucrats and alike just decide what they feel is OK, making it all a complete mess. And that happens all the time in Beijing, through the hygiene and other zillion departments. Their goal seems to be to harass small business, preferably run by foreigners.

And Reuters reports:
After reviewing reports on the outbreak from the NDRC and other economic departments, Xi Jinping told local officials during a Feb 3 meeting of the Politburo’s Standing Committee that some of the actions taken to contain the virus are harming the economy.
He urged them to refrain from “more restrictive measures”, it was said.
Local authorities outside Wuhan – where the virus is thought to have first taken hold – have shut down schools and factories, sealed off roads and railways, banned public events and even locked down residential compounds. Xi said some of those steps have not been practical and have sown fear among the public, they said.

But it seems many officials ignore the words of the President…

NCP is undermining the economy

Posted on by Gilbert Van Kerckhove

Severe impact

Most people do not realize the enormous impact and chain reaction. The NCP is undermining the economy, in China but also in the world. (NCP, previously called 2019nCoV)
If the epidemic can be under control and restrictions lifted by 1 April, that would be SUPER.
I am afraid that is too optimistic.
As for seminars, conferences, trade fairs, parties, big balls, and all: don’t count on it anytime soon.
Draw your own conclusions.
What I most fear: panic, social instability, paranoia, hysteria, overreaction, exaggerated restrictions, name it.

Eating at home, happy! TRUVAL: The Belgische FruitVeiling (BFV) is a cooperative of fruit growers, established in Sint-Truiden. Truval was chosen as the new name for the quality brand.
As for now, I stay in Beijing. Though I feel it’s worse than SARS when I was also here. I hope I can say, “I was wrong. All is well!.”

Supply chain affected

Already some factories outside of China have to stop production because the components they need from China are not arriving. Slowly those buyers will look for other suppliers, even unwillingly.
The same will apply to many export items such as consumer products. The problems that surfaced with the USA-China trade war will just get worse. Yes, few countries can compete with the efficiency and price levels of the Chinese supply chain but there are limits…

Foreigners and students

Many foreigners decided to go away or stay away because of the draconian restrictions and the fear to get sick. Then China will suddenly realize those annoying foreigners do contribute to the economy.
The education sector is already suffering, schools and universities to remain closed till 1 March (at least). That is not a big issue somehow but foreign families might get second thoughts of returning.

The service sector

Restaurants are forced to close. If they want to open, draconian measures. Max 3 people on one table. Distance between tables 2 m. Waiters to remain at safe distance to take orders. Restaurants cannot get their supplies, are prohibited access to their warehouses. As nearly all service staff is from outside Beijing, many can’t come back or are not (immediately) allowed to work. Or, they are afraid to go to work. So most won’t get any payment as most Chinese companies ignore the “laws”.
Want someone to repair the air conditioner, fridge, or do house repairs? Most are barred from working and/or barred from your compound.

Monday 10 February

China was supposed to get back to work on Monday but it was very, very subdued. Many companies and shops remain closed. Some of my favorite restaurants won’t open.
Morel’s Restaurant decided on Monday not to proceed with the opening and to wait at least one more week. Main reason: grocery deliveries as good as impossible due to often unreasonable bureaucracy and restrictions.

Renaat: we remain closed!
Legend Beer ordered not to open as “they receive too many guests”. Reopening date not clear, could be one or two weeks later, nobody knows.
Some restaurants continue to operate, such as Niajo, Hulu TRB (both in Sanlitun) and Caravan (Guanghua Lu), many focusing on home deliveries. But one must pick it up at the gate as deliveries cannot enter.

Is Beijing under lockdown?

I would say not really, certainly not like Wuhan.
But some restrictions are pretty draconian, no non-Beijing cars allowed, many compounds refuse visitors, some buildings under lockdown, access to many parts of the city (especially for transport of goods) seriously disrupted. But airport and railway stations are still open, however long-distance buses are stopped.
Smaller cities often impose meaningless house quarantines, even for people returning from overseas or from Beijing. Many of those restrictions are illegal says the central government…

Contamination issues

Chinese authorities announced on Monday that aerosol and fecal routes of infection remain unconfirmed.
Calls are now stronger to eliminate wildlife trade as China confirms the virus came from pangolins and bats as reported earlier.
All as reported in China Daily on 10 February.

“Ten days wait for the operation” “In China ten days to build a hospital”.

WHO is increasingly worried the virus could spread worldwide by people who never set foot in China. They said, maybe we have seen only the tip of the iceberg…
But compare: the lockdown of Wuhan alone equals the lockdown of entire Belgium. Imagine…

So what now?

The millions of Chinese in Wuhan and surrounding areas confined to their homes during the coronavirus outbreak have turned to the internet to alleviate boredom and do their work from home, boosting the fortunes of tech companies that offer services like mobile games, work conferencing and online health services.
While nobody knows how and when the health crisis will end, the business and tech landscape is likely to change by the time the crisis is over, creating a new set of winners and losers in China’s increasingly digitalized economy.