Economic impact of the NCP

Posted on by Gilbert Van Kerckhove

No time to be an optimist

As I mentioned early about the economic impact of the NCP coronavirus, it could be dramatic. Despite all the positive messages from the Chinese government, in the sense that “the economy will fully bounce back when the epidemic is under control”, one has to be naive to believe it.
First of all, no reliable forecast when it WILL be under control.
Some health experts have expressed hope that the number of new coronavirus cases will peak in the coming weeks despite uncertainty over its transmissions.

The aerosol debate

One much debated issue is the possible transmission through “airborne particles and aerosols”. In Beijing, Feng Luzhao, from the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, sought to dispel fears that aerosol transmission – the mixing of the virus with droplets in the air to form aerosols – was a way of contracting the illness. “At present, the main methods of transmission are by droplets and through contact … There is no evidence that the coronavirus can spread through aerosol transmission,” Feng said. (reported by SCMP)

See this “warning” circulating in China:
About the possibility of aerosol transmission (Expat Focus, Hangzhou)
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/8UMavbZeF-YFyTuqAQtiyA

My take: not convinced about the so-called danger, except in areas with lots of infected people transiting. At home I don’t want to know about it. I have no visitors, no “central air conditioning”. I just take my own precautions and occasionally clean the floors with some Dettol in the water.

It’s around the world

The economic repercussions are already felt outside of China.
Hotels in France and other locations that are normally overflowing with tourists are suddenly deserted. Sales in the duty free shops are to plummet, knowing that the Chinese buy like half of the luxury products in the world. As for now, without any forecast when that will end, all organized tourist tours from and to China are stopped.
As many as 140 million Chinese citizens travel abroad every year spending US$250 billion. Expect a huge drop.
Airlines suffer massively and fire pilots and other staff (or put on unpaid leave).
Look at all the tourist spots that will see their Chinese invasions disappear.

Worst in China

Strict quarantine measures and transport lockdowns to contain the spread have brought China’s industry to a virtual standstill.
With all the draconian measures restricting travel, even locally, tourism in China is becoming a disaster industry.

It also affects all the small shops and restaurants that are asked to close. Those people lose all their income and can’t cope with it. Many have to pay high rents and salaries. A major KTV in Beijing is firing 200 staff. Many restaurants and bars fire their staff and won’t pay salaries despite the “obligation” ordered by the authorities. Only foreign-owned enterprises will try to obey – until they go bust.

During Spring Festival many Chinese were counting on making big money, in the entertainment, food & beverage, local markets and all. They got zilch.

Restart activities?

China tries to get back to work amid coronavirus outbreak on today Monday 10 February.
Major cities across China are preparing for the return of millions of workers after an extended holiday, but as the coronavirus outbreak continues to rage, opinions are mixed on the safest approach.
Ministry of Commerce said in Beijing on Sunday that companies were “encouraged to resume business on the basis of sound preparation against the pandemic”.
Central and local governments are trying to balance the need to control the outbreak, boost supplies for frontline medics and minimize the impact on the economy.

More about the economic issues to follow.

 

Novel coronavirus pneumonia

Posted on by Gilbert Van Kerckhove

The Wuhan virus has a name, as for now

China’s National Health Commission has given the virus a temporary official name – novel coronavirus pneumonia, or NCP.
China Daily: ” Facts about the novel coronavirus: Transmission”, see:
https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202002/06/WS5e3bd7a2a31012821727588f.html

The “facts” are not complete. As far as we know, the virus likes metal surfaces more than other. And nothing said about heath killing the virus, see previous post.

Where does NCP come from?
Interesting new study, as per China Daily:
“Pangolins a potential intermediate host of novel coronavirus: Study”

Pangolin

CNN picture

See: https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202002/07/WS5e3d13dca310128217275d3b.html

That does not eliminate the bats as they could still be another intermediate host of the virus.
I have to admit… when in Brazil in the seventies I did eat some of the local look-alike pangolins, that time considered a “local delicacy”. They are called “tatu” in Brazil, “armadilho” in Portugal. They are not pangolins.
And when in Vietnam, I was invited to a dinner in Saigon with on the menu a life fruit bat. I spare you the details of that meal.

Mourning and anger

Many are mourning the death of doctor Li Wenliang.
Li, 34, died after contracting the coronavirus. He had earlier been reprimanded by police for alerting his friends about the outbreak in December.

There has been a lot of confusion and contradictions about his death. He was (officially) reported dead on 6 February at 21:30, then, “not yet”, then REALLY dead the next day. And as always the censors tried to clean it all up. The confusion has made even worse the mounting anger of many Chinese on how the doctor was treated by the authorities.
See some of the contradictory news clips about the timing of his death, for those who read Chinese. I omitted the many expressions of sadness and anger of friends on Wechat to protect them.

China Daily about the doctor

Article “Nation mourns doctor who succumbed to virus”:
https://global.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202002/08/WS5e3ddb45a310128217275eb9.html

At least the newspaper gives a pretty honest account, leaving aside the mystery about the exact timing of his death.
It says:
“On China’s social media platforms, condolences poured in with hundreds of millions of views.
Many were also questioning the possibility of a dereliction of duty by Hubei officials for ignoring Li’s early warning and questioning him for so-called rumors, which later turned out to be true.
After being approved by the Communist Party of China Central Committee, the National Supervisory Commission made a quick response on Friday by deciding to send a special group to Wuhan to conduct a comprehensive probe over issues regarding Li, according to a brief release on the joint website of the CPC Central Commission for Discipline Inspection and the NSC.”

Exploring empty Beijing

Posted on by Gilbert Van Kerckhove

Snow melting

After two days of snow and slippery roads the sun came out, time for exploring empty Beijing with the virus outbreak. It is supposed to be the last weekend before business is to start again on Monday 10 February. Not sure that will be a real event. Still so many restrictions in place and many people are not back yet.
Jumped on my bicycle and this time with my big helmet that provides real protection, including against the Wuhan coronavirus.
As temperature was well above zero C, roads were easier than 2 days ago (see the street close to my compound on 6 February).

The streets in normally traffic-clogged Sanlitun were very empty.
See the pics. For those familiar with this region, it shows Gongti Xi Lu, Gongti Dong Lu, Gongti Bei Lu, Sanlitun Nan Lu.

Not much open

The vast majority of shops, shopping centers and restaurants are closed, mainly imposed by the authorities. Soho Sanlitun completely dead, all locked up. Tai Koo Li still a bit in operation but really empty. The area of XL Bar and Restaurant totally fenced off, what the hell.
Some hardcore outlets are still open: Groovy Schiller’s, Lily’s American Diner, Mala Bocca (all strongly recommended). My usual Jenny Lou was open but I went again to Jingkelong Supermarket on Gongti Bei Lu. Busy, with basically everything available and at reasonable prices.
So, again filling up the fridge. Had lunch today with a steak from Jingkelong and (dried) mushrooms from Shanxi I found at home. All nice.

Fighting the virus

You read a lot of contradictory recommendations about masks and stuff, I take all that with a spoon of salt as we say.
See these interesting guidelines:

I also read a piece that says masks are often more dangerous than good. And that you throw away used masks after a short use and when wet. Etc. etc.
OK, allow me to dissent. Been using the same N95 mask for a few days. As pollution is rather mild, it does not become clogged. When I arrive home:
– booths, mask, gloves, scarf promptly go on top of the heating radiators (they are real hot) where they stay for hours. Virus killed.
– I do not touch my face before washing hands and that after emptying the shopping bags.
– I wash hands frequently, especially after touching the items from the supermarket. In the shops I use my (biking) gloves and very little my hands (except for Wechat pay on my mobile).

That’s basically it.

Jiayou jiayou China and Wuhan

I was asked to make some clip to show how I cope/feel with the coronavirus in Beijing.
See here a segment (supposed to be the final segment).

200205 homeclip2b

(click on it to view)
They wanted it in “our” language and I went for French as more people can understand than in my native Flemish. I am waiting for the link once they post them online (two media). Done with zero preparation and automatic recording on the mobile, being Home Alone.

Surviving the Wuhan virus

Posted on by Gilbert Van Kerckhove

Life in Beijing

Some of my friends and relatives wonder how I am surviving the Wuhan virus in Beijing, being alone at home.
Well, it could be worse. I am fortunate to have a comfortable home near Worker’s Stadium, being pretty much near the center of foreign life here. And good Internet and IPTV (hundreds of channels).
We had two days of snow, a bit unusual for Beijing, bringing over 3 cm of snow. Roads are not cleared as usual, traffic is still a bit rare and walking is a bit slippery.
I decided to walk and not bike to Jingkelong supermarket, a shopping trolley in hand. Bad decision as the damned thing broke in the middle of my shopping, breaking several eggs (yes, very messy) and I had to carry the heavy bag all the way home.
The supermarkets are well stocked and prices remain reasonable. Everybody uses a mask.

Home sweet home

My compound is checking visitors, no more deliveries allowed, they must be picked up at the gate. Access still reasonably easy – other compounds can be pretty hostile.

I enjoy my cooking, all a bit creative. Big fun. I also dismounted our old gas stove trying to get it to work better, so I needed to clean the floors with the mess (yeah with a disinfectant!).
I am more or less able to respect my Keto diet, I do exercises at home. Result: still losing weight while I am eating really well.
Evenings are filled with watching some of my old VHS and VCD movies. Some great stuff rediscovered. Single Malt provided.
So, a Belgian bachelor can survive – as for now. Cross fingers.

Surviving virusland

Posted on by Gilbert Van Kerckhove

The new Coronavirus

As reported earlier, Houston we have a problem. The reaction of the authorities is debatable. For sure, Wuhan government made a horrible mess. Millions of people left Wuhan to other parts of China and other countries before the government started acting instead of shutting down the news about it. The consequences could be rather disastrous for months to come. Surviving virusland will be a challenge.

The most shocking for me was the (in)famous New Year’s Eve Gala on 24 January, on all Chinese channels.

OK, my Chinese is too poor to appreciate any of this stuff but kitsch à la chinoise it is for sure. You get dizzy from all the overloaded effects and colors and whatever.
But for me it was like having a great party on a sinking ship, as nothing was wrong. Little or no mention at all about poor Wuhan. Nobody in the audience had a mask. Oh great. Al while they were placing in quarantine 20 to 30 million people, for a start. Separating families, making it impossible for people to get back home. A total disregard for the suffering of the people.

Of course the tone was, China is GREAT, everybody is HAPPY.
During the CCTV Gala the show switched to one of Wuhan’s main hospitals now to get an update from the nurses there who are spending their Chinese New Year night taking care of the many people infected with the coronavirus. According to the presenter, the switch was “very last minute.”. For the rest of the Gala, no word no indication.

Beijing restaurants and shops

Gradually Beijing restaurants and shops were closing for the Spring Festival exodus. Then it became worse with the new restrictions. Beijing is not yet isolated as Wuhan, trains and flight still operate while many people have difficulties to return to Beijing, where they live and work. One goes away for a few days, you take the minimum with you. Then you can’t go back. Where to stay, how to pay, missing your medicines, clothes, and all. Wonderful start of the New Year.

On 23 January I still had a nice lunch at LAD (Lily’s American Diner). they were to stay open.

Then I started to go to my favorite restaurants to order a lot and take home doggy bag to eat at home. Groovy Schiller’s Bar & Restaurant was one (pretty full), Legend Beer another (was very empty already, later closed). Morel’s Restaurant was closed and not sure when it will open.
Most of my usual shops were closed (but might reopen soon), such as Jenny Lou and April Gourmet. Got a lot from Jinkelong that was operating normally and was well stocked. Using my bicycle as a pick-up truck.
The pictures talk for themselves…

Home sweet home! As recommended I try to stay home as much as possible, cooking (I actually love it) and watch my old VHS and VCD movies.

Controls and masks

Some people managed to come back to Beijing by train. See the checking on arrival in Beijing West station.
Masks and alcohol (disinfectant) are all sold out. I have enough as I keep them … against pollution.
Some people invented new “masks”, see the pics. I thought it was a joke till people were spotted in Guangzhou using them. How they managed to breathe beats me.

Outlook

How long will this mess last? No idea. I personally worry, reading recent reports, that we might continue to feel the impact till early May (actually another long holiday…).
The reason for the somber outlook is the history of the facts.
See this in-depth analysis of the new virus:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext

It mentions: “In December, 2019, a series of pneumonia cases of unknown cause emerged in Wuhan, Hubei, China, with clinical presentations greatly resembling viral pneumonia.” So while it started so early (first case was on 8 December 2019), authorities failed to act and the epidemic was allowed to spread for a period of more than forty days before any decisive action taken. As a result, thousands of people from Wuhan flew to Hong Kong, Thailand, Singapore and Japan before the city was locked down. Wuhan Mayor reported 5 million have left the city, many to Henan and other Chinese provinces. So, specialists think many new cases could emerge in the next weeks and months.

As the virus spreads, anger floods Chinese social media. The sheer volume of criticism of the government, and the sometimes clever ways that critics dodge censors, are testing Beijing’s ability to control the narrative.
The Chinese government will never learn its lessons from killing so-called rumors and systematic cover-ups of “problems”.
As SCMP wrote on 26 January: “What is clear is that China’s initial mishandling of the coronavirus outbreak means that thousands have been infected, over a hundred have died, and the economy, already weakened by debt and the trade war, will take another hit. But perhaps the most tragic part of this story is that there is little reason to hope that next time will be different. The survival of the one-party state depends on secrecy, media suppression and constraints on civil liberties.”