COVID-19 big confusion

To quarantine or not quarantine

Beijing as usual makes our life a misery with its COVID-19 big confusion.
That applies to the quarantine rule, the opening and operation of restaurants etc.
So, economy back to normal is only for those with their heads in the clouds. Obviously people still are naive thinking there will be no pandemic. Oh well.

On Friday 6 March Premier Li Keqiang still did not entirely impose quarantine for all in Beijing. As China daily wrote on 7 March,  “Beijing mandates 14-day quarantine for inbound travelers from overseas coronavirus hotspots”, that would normally not apply to travelers from Belgium, at least not earlier in the past week.
In our compound we received the visit of “health officials” who wanted my wife to sign the papers, see the pics (basically agreeing to quarantine). I gave them the official publication of the Beijing Government stating people like my wife did not need the quarantine. They did not know about this (as usual) and were happy to get my printout.
After a second “visit” there was no imposed quarantine and only mandatory daily temperature check. Anyway my wife will avoid going out by her free will. And we adapted the new way to say goodnight.

Conclusion: I am afraid that anybody arriving from abroad will be mandated the 14-day quarantine, even with the announcement in China Daily (see pic). Any suspicious travel history will sound the alarm!

On another note, all school teachers are advised not to return to Beijing until further notice.

In the meantime Northern Italy imposed a quarantine/lockdown for 16 million people.

People at high risk unable to get assistance or tests in USA. Total breakdown of the system. Once they start real testing I expect the number of infections to go up dramatically. Reason why genius Trump is not enthusiastic to do so. See also further the Belgian article.

One Diner Per Table Suggestion Causes Confusion, Concern

Michael Wester in theBeijinger 7 March 2020
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/RI0A_hC4OKVr69FkIcYdIg
Read the full article there.

A statement that small restaurants should limit diners to one per table made at Thursday’s city government press briefing on the coronavirus crisis has caused concern and confusion among Beijing’s restaurant owners and foodies.
A closer look reveals that this is not necessarily a new mandate, but some areas of town have already interpreted it as such.

The Beijing Youth Daily’s (app.bjtitle.com) headline on the story states the one per table rule
Regardless of what was said, some restaurants and property management companies, particularly those in malls, are taking the announcement as gospel and already enforcing a one person per table restriction.
“In order to further our work in epidemic prevention, I think we ought to do the following,” An official began, then listed 10 items:

  • Restaurants must make clear lines of responsibility for epidemic prevention.
  • Customers must be subject to temperature checks before entering.
  • During the epidemic, dining in is not recommended; where dining in is absolutely necessary, eat in turns or separated from one another. To reduce customers from loitering too long, encourage take out and dining alone.
  • Before dining, make sure you wear your mask; if you are planning to dine in a restaurant, be sure you are healthy and are not showing any symptoms of COVID-19. Wear your mask at all times except when eating.
  • Make sure you wash your hands before dining.
  • Use staggered methods of serving to prevent overcrowding.
  • At ordering and paying stations, establish one-meter line markers to prevent customers from crowding these areas.
  • Increasing distance between tables and having only one customer per table will be effective in limiting group dining.
  • When dining, reduce socializing and concentrate on eating.
  • Restaurants should heat sterilize all tableware using steam heat, boiling water or chemical sterilizers.

Some of these, such as the distance between tables and one-meter lines, have already been announced and enforced.
Diners visiting Beijing restaurants over the last two days report being told differing limits, from one to four per table, while others say no limit has been set.

A party of three were asked to dine at separate tables with one empty table in between; Thursday at Karaiya Spice House in the Kerry Centre (with my friend Glen in the picture…)

Like most of what has been happening across town as this crisis has unfolded, both interpretation and enforcement of policies that have been announced at a rapid-fire pace have been largely left to local-area police, building management and community associations.
Many restaurants are taking it upon themselves to enforce limits, even without prompting, simply to play it safe.
Any tightening of restrictions on dining is likely to further damage an industry that is already reeling from a massive decline in business as a result of the virus.

The end is far away

SCMP 8 March 2020
The Covid-19 epidemic caused by the coronavirus will not end this year as the contagion has spread worldwide, a leading microbiologist from Hong Kong has said.
Professor Yuen Kwok-yung from the University of Hong Kong, who advised authorities on control measures against the disease, said although the situation in mainland China and Hong Kong might improve in summer, there could be more imported cases from the southern hemisphere in winter.
“We think the epidemic will probably not come to an end,” Yuen said on a pre-recorded television interview aired on Sunday. “There will be what we call reversed imported cases. In the beginning other countries feared us, now we fear them for bringing in the virus.”
Yuen urged residents to avoid travelling at least until the end of the year.

Facing such a virus, immediate action is the key

How the coverup and delays in Wuhan created a worldwide pandemic. Indeed quick reaction is vital to halt the spread. Precious time was wasted allowing the Pandora box to open. Now Western countries face the same dilemma: they are also too slow to act. This news is actually … not new. See:
“China censors report about how authorities hid coronavirus genome sequence test results for 14 days”
https://www.hongkongfp.com/2020/03/07/china-censors-report-authorities-hid-coronavirus-

Actually Wuhan waited longer than 2 weeks to admit reality and take drastic action. It was too late with millions of people having moved out.

A stern warning in Belgium

Interesting article, in French. Worth a read.

All over the news…

“Coronavirus : ‘Face à sa propagation exponentielle, des mesures extrêmes s’imposent'”
In short:

– the pandemic is here with the exponential spread of the virus;
– Belgium is not prepared and has no real plan;
– we must avoid any contact with others as much as possible and use masks;
– Belgium can expect 50,000 cases in 33 days and 200,000 a week later unless drastic action is taken.
– in a case like this virus immediate response is a must
– the country should have stockpile of masks and other to face any such epidemic (strategic reserve of 400,000 masks)
– the data provided by the WHO are unreliable.

See:
https://www.lalibre.be/belgique/societe/coronavirus-face-a-sa-propagation-exponentielle-des-mesures-extremes-s-imposent-5e6381a0d8ad5835a1c8dfc3

Very interesting but alarmist read. I can agree with most except for the emphasis on masks as I have said many times. He does not mention enough washing hands and not touching surfaces.
With such a scenario in mind, I am afraid the USA is going to face a crisis…

COVID-19 closing doors

Beijing quarantine

Increasingly COVID-19 closing doors worldwide. Beijing had exempted some foreigners from the 14 day quarantine. We calculated the pandemic was spreading in Europe so we decided it was best my wife quickly returned from Brussels – considered not to be a risk country – to Beijing. No real quarantine for her while she does avoid going around. That door seems to be closing very soon, any moment now anybody entering China will face the quarantine. China not mentioning it was the first to vehemently oppose travel restrictions…
Obviously that will not help the economy to return to any “normal” situation.

Read the China Daily editorial of 6 March 2020:
“Risks of reverse current virus spread highlight importance of coordination: China Daily editorial”
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202003/05/WS5e60de5ba31012821727cac7.html

I quote:
“Thus, it is strongly suggested that the country should consider expanding its 14-day quarantine requirements from those having recent traveling experience in the four worst hit countries — the Republic of Korea, Japan, Iran and Italy — to all visitors coming from outside, including Chinese nationals. … As such, although the country remains open to those from outside, a no-one-should-be-omitted 14-day quarantine should be imposed on all those wanting to enter the country. While this will drive up the administrative costs given the still sizable population flow into the country each day, it should be adopted immediately to plug the obvious loopholes to help the country to defend itself against the virus and thwart the cross-border spread of the virus.”

You are warned.

Online Health Declaration for entry/exit China

See this article with instructions on how to fill out in advance the form.
Link: https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/OZFhA6Uxa5lb5fSFU8qmTw

Be aware you need to be able to scan the QR code.
See some screenshots, go to the site for the full introduction.

 

Cheap airline tickets?

Chinese airlines offer dirt cheap tickets to fly. Now who would use them? It makes no sense, wherever you go, or return to Beijing you face quarantine.
Few people seem to understand the enormous difficulty to do any business now in China as practically speaking you can’t travel to any place. If you do Beijing – Tianjin and you return then you face 2 weeks quarantine.
Yes you can do ZOOM, SKYPE and other. Some people need to travel to SIGN contracts. Or visit notary and alike.

Alipay and Wechat health apps

As I mentioned, I could not do any of those. While I still believe the WeChat one is only for Chinese ID, I got some valuable feedback, see here. I will try this again but with a Chinese friend (who is a bit of a specialist in those things) as there is always Chinese stuff popping up, and difficult fields to fill in. In my case I never know, is it my passport or my Green card, etc. I don’t want to do something wrong. The same friend had set up my WeChat, Alipay and Taobao so she is familiar with my “problems”.

“FOREIGNERS GUIDE TO ACCESSING HEALTH QR CODE”
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/rTxr5qqWl5699B1CHyUBiQ

See some screenshots from that link and screenshot of my mobile (the last step I did before stopping).

We were initially looking in Alipay for another link (“Alipay Health Code”) and that one did not work for me. That link is talked about but … does not appear directly within Alipay. Talking about confusing. I keep you posted. Any tip is welcome.

Trends wrote yesterday:

Volvo top guy Geert Bruyneel: “Economists in Europe have underestimated the impact of the coronavirus.”
I think not only Europe, but worldwide… I clearly agree with him since the early days.

Volvo-topman Geert Bruyneel: ‘Economen in Europa hebben de impact van het coronavirus onderschat’
Geert Bruyneel is het wereldwijde hoofd van de Volvo-fabrieken. In januari zat hij twee weken in quarantaine, na een verblijf in China. “Onze Chinese fabrieken krabbelen weer overeind. De economen in Europa hebben de situatie toch wat onderschat. Voor mij was al langer duidelijk dat het coronavirus een aanzienlijke impact op de economie zal hebben.”

Have a nice weekend

Thanks to all for reading. Some people read half or even less then start screaming I am wrong. Attention span today is VERY short. So many superficial and ignorant people.

Oh well. Will try to have a relaxed weekend with my birds coming to look for me every morning, waiting for their food. And I talk to myself a little.
Also, a new Hongkong outfit for the Metro. Chinese paranoia at its best. I prefer also an alternative use for masks.
Enjoy virus weekend. And good luck to our American friends, they are blessed with a great genius leader, a bit like the one in DPRK.

Keep up a smile facing COVID-19

Virus in Belgium – France. Masks anybody?

Not easy to keep up a smile facing COVID-19, as things are not getting better.
Now total cases in Belgium stand at 50, the majority is of people returning from their holidays in Italy. Patients either stay at home or in the hospital. More cases are expected. Still not too bad compared with other countries.

See de interesting overview map from De Standaard.
In France, number of cases going up strongly. Now if you want to buy a mask, you need first to see your doctor, get a prescription and then you can buy a mask in the pharmacy. Very different situation than in China…

Belgium keeps its humor:

https://www.levif.be/actualite/belgique/quand-l-humour-belge-sauve-du-coronavirus/article-normal-1259299.html

Another interactive map:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/coronavirus-maps.html

Screenshot of affected countries of that website.

Most masks are useless except to protect you from touching face. Only the FFP-2 mask offers protection but is very uncomfortable and difficult to use for a longer time. Mask mostly are used on infected persons to avoid contaminating others.
The paranoia with masks in China is thus meaningless. I mostly use any mask in public just to show I have one. If I feel I need protection I use my N95 masks, the ones I always use against pollution. And I use my motorcycle helmet.

In the meantime a second plane from Moscow to Beijing was hit by quarantine. Happens as I explained the reasons in previous posts. Details remain rather sketchy.

The USA is confusing everybody

Yeah. you know, I have a hunch looking at the news and contacting people. So I conclude as I am more clever than anybody:

– Trump’s hunch is fantasy;
– USA is ill-prepared with not enough test kits, hospitals not equipped, crisis centers unprepared;
– medical system overcharging patients with typical U.S. inflated prices to test and treat people, while voices come up to do it for free;
– pandemic is still in the initial phase and the economy will suffer;
– US bureaucratic blunder in providing test kits saw only some 1500 people tested; South Korea has tested 140,000 people for the coronavirus. That could explain why its death rate is just 0.6% — far lower than in China or the US. As for the death rate, I still believe it stands at less than 2% because many mild cases remain undetected and even if deaths in Wuhan were underreported.

As I mentioned in an earlier post…

Renaat Morel interviewed

Our friend Renaat again in the news!

Read it here: https://www.knack.be/nieuws/wereld/hoe-gaan-belgische-restaurants-in-peking-om-met-de-coronacrisis-het-is-aanpassen-of-verdwijnen/article-longread-1572739.html

China Daily actually admitted on 5 March that the epidemic cost the catering sector US$71.6 billion. Compared with the Spring Festival holiday last year, the revenue of 78% of restaurants in China dropped 100% during this year, a report from the China Cuisine Association said. Revenue of 9% of them dropped more than 9%; revenue of 7% saw between 70 and 90% drops; and revenue of less than 5% declined by 70%, the report said.
Link: https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202003/05/WS5e6069eba31012821727c883.html

Meanwhile restaurants try to stay afloat with online delivery, with heavy discounts. One wonders if they make any money.

This shows the bill for ordering a pizza at Legend Beer. Extras added free of charge. Discount: pay 98 instead of 135 RMB. As sent by a friend. See the temperature record of the staff involved…

China Daily: some interesting articles

Yes, CD at times does have interesting stuff. See these, worth a read:

Scientists discover two major subtypes of novel coronavirus
Chinese scientists have discovered that the novel coronavirus has evolved into two major subtypes. Experts said they believe investigating the differences and features of these subtypes may help evaluate risks and formulate better treatment and prevention plans.
The two subtypes are named L and S. The L type is more aggressive and was more prevalent in the early stages of the outbreak in Wuhan, Hubei province. But instances of the S type, which is older and less aggressive, have increased in frequency recently, thus possibly explaining the disease’s slowing momentum in China.
Link: https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202003/05/WS5e605826a31012821727c76d.html

Govt stresses ethics and efficiency in drug tests
As the nation races to find a vaccine, authorities and experts are working to ensure probity and safety.
At a news briefing on Feb 24, Bruce Aylward, an epidemiologist with the World Health Organization, described a major obstacle to research on the novel coronavirus.
He said too many clinical trials are being conducted simultaneously and there are not enough patients to provide samples, which may lead to unreliable results.
The article explains the hurdles to develop a vaccine. Problematic… Read why.
Link: https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202003/05/WS5e605be1a31012821727c7b3.html

Potential treatments for novel coronavirus
Article gives details on drugs being tested: Remdesivir, Chloroquine phosphate, Plasma transfusion therapy and Favipiravir.
Link: https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202003/05/WS5e605e4fa31012821727c7d5.html

Notice as also posted on WeChat

Do note I won’t reply to individual requests for updates on the virus issues and I won’t post on WeChat. This is why I update daily on my website, as not to repeat always the same. If people are too lazy to follow my posts, their problem. Also because there are no simple answers as everything changes fast. Questions? Ask your embassy or the local government (good luck).

COVID-19 reality is starkly different

Not getting better

While official Chinese media trumpet how well all is going and will go, COVID-19 reality is starkly different.
Restaurants mostly remain closed in my area, simply because: 1. government does not allow to open 2. government imposes exaggerated restrictions making operation as good as impossible.
Massages, gyms, KTV, SPA, cinemas, bars, all types of events are PROHIBITED. Cool. Can you imagine how many people have zero income and the chain reaction in the economy? My repair man of electronics cannot start working. And so on. The whole economy is paralyzed.

Worse is often the total hysteria and paranoia of ordinary Chinese. Depressing.

Oh yes, have you seen any ongoing construction? Since how long did it stop? What about all the workers? Even subway construction looks DEAD.

Return to normal? Not anytime soon with the paranoia and often meaningless restrictions. Don’t misunderstand me, we must remain cautious.
I am obviously NOT an optimist. If you are, let’s talk again in 3 months.

In the rest of the world, needless to say, the pandemic has only started. It will get much worse before it gets better. The coronavirus that has kept hundreds of millions of students out of classrooms and day cares around the world. And much more going down the drain. As commented in NYT: “It’s just one of a host of life-altering measures taken to preserve public health, and it has ripple effects: rising child care costs for parents, suppliers losing out on cafeteria food orders, babysitters and nannies in flux, and loneliness and tech glitches for kids in online classes, to name a few.”
Olympics this year? Good luck.

And as I already reported much earlier this would happen:
Coronavirus: China’s factory closures could cause global medicine shortages. US and Europe monitoring short-term delay to supplies, with antibiotics, diabetes medications, HIV drugs and ibuprofen among those heavily reliant on China. (SCMP)

China strongly opposed early coronavirus travel restrictions, such as by the U.S. and was supported by the WHO about it. Now it has its own as I reported earlier. Of course they swallow their earlier criticism of the ban…
Many countries now also close their borders to visitors from “infected countries”. Like Israel, no more visitors from Italy, France, Germany and other countries.
Slowly international travel is becoming paralyzed and this will have huge consequences for the economy.

All the stuff with QR color codes, health apps

As I reported earlier, both Alipay and Wechat claim to have applications where you can register so people can check your health situation before allowing you to enter somewhere.
I tested and yes, foreigners cannot use it. Only with Chinese ID.

In our compound, see the announcement with QR code (and WeChat translation). My wife registered, that at least worked, they called her to check her travel history and the only thing she needs to do is to daily report her temperature. That is OK.

Panic buying in Hongkong and Western countries: I haven’t seen this in Beijing…

As a James Bond fan…

Well this is BAD news: “Release date for new 007 film postponed amid coronavirus concerns.
The global release of No Time to Die has been pushed from April 3 to November 2020 after fans wrote an open letter urging the James Bond studios to delay the film’s release date due to public health concerns.

I am currently watching my big collection of 007 movies, all on VCD…
(FYI: VCD is a home video format and the first format for distributing films. The format was widely adopted in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, superseding the VHS and Betamax systems in the regions until DVD-Video finally became affordable in the late 2000s.)

David Mahon writes in his China Watch (Mid Spring 2020):

Some good points! See extract:

Over-reacting and masking the truth
…. Propaganda is not the sole domain of former communist countries. ….  Trump blithely announced that the virus was under control in the US, and his media supporters like Rush Limbaugh suggested that statements to the contrary by scientists were attempts to undermine his presidency.
Capital markets have been reacting to the dishonesty coming out of the White House regarding their preparedness to handle the virus. One of the first acts of Vice President Pence, the czar appointed to lead management of responses to the virus, was to issue a dictate that his team would control the messages of government officials. The director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases was told not to say anything without White House clearance. In 2016, Trump dismantled agencies established to deal with epidemics and pandemics after SARS and H1N1. The United States is likely not ready for the social and economic impact of COVID-19.

A challenge to China is to avoid overzealousness in the enforcement of quarantine regulations and temperature checks. Social media has reported some abuses of citizens in Hubei, still the virus’s epicentre.
His website: www.mahonchina.com

China’s economy

See what China Economic Review reports
(edited)

China’s services sector contracted at the steepest pace in more than 14 years in February, as the gauges for total new businesses and employment plummeted to record lows amid the coronavirus outbreak, reported Caixin.
The Caixin China General Services Business Activity Index, which gives an independent snapshot of operating conditions in the services sector, fell to 26.5 in February from 51.8 in the previous month. The February reading was the lowest since the survey began in November 2005. A number above 50 indicates an expansion in activity, while a figure below that points to a contraction.
The reading follows a sharp decline in the Caixin China General Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which fell to a record low of 40.3 in February. The Caixin China Composite Output Index, which covers both manufacturing and service companies, tumbled to an all-time low of 27.5 in February from 51.9 the previous month.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has slashed its 2020 growth outlook for China to below 5.6% because of the “sheer geographic spread” of the coronavirus epidemic globally, IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva said.

Passenger car retail sales in China, the world’s biggest auto market, fell 80% in February because of the coronavirus epidemic, one of the country’s industry associations said on Wednesday, reported Reuters.
(my take: with people losing so much income, do not expect sales to climb back in great numbers…)

And this:
China has less than a month to prevent businesses leaving the country in their droves because of the coronavirus epidemic, according to the latest estimate by government scientists.
Labour-intensive textile production, hi-tech electronics and pollution-heavy industries like metal smelting could be the first to leave if the government failed to contain the spread of the deadly virus by the end of the month, the experts said in a report published on Monday in the Bulletin of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.
Source: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3065039/coronavirus-clock-ticking-china-stop-foreign-firms-fleeing

Beware of Wechat

Wechat might be a great app but it is 100% controlled by the security people, often leading to annoying problems (without reason), as I experienced myself (I was kicked out of my account for no valid reason!). If you use Wechat you must accept Chinese security knows everything about you. You become an open book. The CIA must be jealous.

See this comment:
“China’s most popular messaging app censored a range of neutral chat group references to the coronavirus epidemic, potentially threatening public access to essential health and safety information, according to a digital media research group.
As well as politically sensitive terms, the researchers found that WeChat censored keyword combinations ranging from discussions of Chinese leaders’ responses to the outbreak, neutral references to government policies on handling the epidemic, responses to the outbreak in Hong Kong, Taiwan and Macau, and references to Li Wenliang, a doctor who died after raising concerns about the outbreak.
The analysis was conducted by the Citizen Lab at the University of Toronto’s Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy and based on tests of keywords extracted from reports on major news websites in mainland China and Hong Kong.”
Source: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3064832/how-wechat-censored-even-neutral-messages-about-coronavirus

Is Belgium prepared?

Somber article in LaLibre.be:
“Coronavirus in Belgium, the worst scenario: up to 850,000 people infected and 50,000 deaths. Really?”
Published 2 March in French
https://www.lalibre.be/debats/opinions/coronavirus-sans-mesures-de-precaution-drastiques-on-risque-d-avoir-850-000-personnes-infectees-et-50-000-morts-en-belgique-5e5cf60f9978e23106a0bfd9

Interesting, if not a bit too pessimistic view.
It also gives – a question I had earlier – data on Belgian hospitals: Over 30,000 adult beds of which 1,400 beds for intensive care (with the necessary equipment). That would be grossly insufficient according to the article.

Rest from COVID-19 craziness

No need to give details

Today I take a rest from COVID-19 craziness. Anyway the virus is all over the news and more and more countries are facing the pandemic and trying to cope with it. What I can see, countries like Belgium, Netherlands, France and other are acting pretty OK. Less can be said of USA, I just read about a lady that had serious lung problems and was unable to get any help from the “help line” and other. Looks like a big mess with insufficient preparations, especially to do the tests.
Good luck to them. And if they try a test, might cost them thousands of dollars. WTF.

Other reason to take a break, my wife made it safely back from Brussels on a nearly empty Hainan Airlines plane. Luckily Brussels is still considered a “not-seriously-affected area”. See yesterday’s post. The airline as well as Beijing Airport are taking stringent protective measures and passengers are seriously screened and tested.

Renaat Morel talking to CGTN

Our friend Renaat gave an interview from his Beijing apartment.

See him (after some 12 minutes); it did play in my mobile.
https://s-url.cgtn.com/p/BBeJDIA

Was in Le Journal yesterday.
Morel’s Restaurant remains closed but Legend Beer reopens, doing mainly take-outs.
Whatever authorities claim, back to normal is faaaaar away and many businesses won’t survive till then.

All meetings cancelled

Well, our Sanlitun Rotaractors opted for another ZOOM meeting on Monday, happy to join as always.

Looks like ZOOM is very popular now…